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60% Growth. Nobody's Talking About It.
Plus: The Signals the Headlines Are Missing, The Permian's Other Story, and More
John Jordan
June 23, 2026
A NOTE FROM THE FOUNDER
One of the benefits of spending decades in the oil and gas industry is that you begin to recognize patterns long before they become headlines.
When I started my career, most conversations centered around finding oil. Today, the industry still values oil production, but some of the most important developments are happening in places that receive far less attention. The growing role of natural gas in the Permian Basin is a perfect example.
Many investors look at production statistics and see higher volumes. What I see is an entire value chain being built around those volumes. New pipelines, LNG export facilities, power generation projects, and industrial demand centers are all signals that companies are committing capital based on their expectations for future production growth. Those investments are not made for next quarter. They are made with a decade-long view.
The same lesson applies to emerging basins like the Uinta. Production growth rarely happens overnight. It starts with improving well results, increasing operator activity, infrastructure investments, and regulatory changes that gradually create momentum. By the time a basin becomes widely recognized, much of the opportunity has already been identified by those paying attention to the fundamentals.
This is one of the reasons we spend so much time studying activity trends rather than simply following commodity prices. Oil and gas prices will always fluctuate. What tends to create lasting value is understanding where capital is flowing, where operators are increasing their commitments, and where the industry's most experienced participants are placing long-term bets.
When I look across the market today, I see an industry that remains disciplined but is quietly positioning itself for growth. The headlines may focus on weekly price movements, but the more important story is unfolding beneath the surface. Infrastructure is expanding, activity is increasing, and regions like the Permian and Uinta continue to attract meaningful investment.
For investors, those are often the signals worth watching most closely.
— John Jordan, Founder & Managing Partner
Natural Gas Is Quietly Reshaping the U.S. Oil Patch
For years, the Permian Basin has been viewed primarily through the lens of oil production. It remains the most important oil-producing region in North America, but a closer look at recent production trends reveals a broader story unfolding beneath the surface. Natural gas is becoming an increasingly important component of the basin's growth profile, and the implications extend well beyond West Texas.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, Permian natural gas production grew from 17.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2021 to 27.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, a 60% increase. Over the same period, crude oil production grew by 39%, rising from 4.7 million barrels per day to 6.6 million barrels per day. The EIA attributes much of this accelerating gas growth to rising gas-oil ratios as the basin's reservoirs mature, a trend the agency expects to continue.
The significance of this development is not simply the additional gas production itself. It is what that production signals about the future direction of U.S. energy markets. Rising gas volumes are already supporting new pipeline investments, LNG export capacity expansion, and conventional power generation demand. One of the more consequential emerging demand drivers is the rapid build-out of artificial intelligence data centers across the United States.
The energy requirements of large-scale AI infrastructure are substantial. A single hyperscale data center can require several hundred megawatts of continuous power which is the equivalent of a small city. Unlike variable renewable sources, natural gas-fired generation can provide the reliable, around-the-clock baseload power these facilities require. Major technology companies have made direct commitments to natural gas-backed power agreements in anticipation of this demand, and utilities across the country are actively planning new gas-fired generation capacity to serve it. The Permian Basin, as the fastest-growing gas-producing region in the country, is directly positioned to supply that future demand.
For mineral and royalty owners, this development reinforces an important principle. The highest-quality assets are often located where multiple commodity streams create value simultaneously. As operators continue to optimize development programs, royalty owners benefit not only from oil production but also from growing natural gas and natural gas liquids revenue streams that can meaningfully enhance long-term cash flow.
MARKET PULSE
Measured Growth Returns to the Oil Patch
The U.S. rig count has increased during eight of the last nine weeks, a notable shift following an extended period of industry caution. While current activity levels remain below the peak years of shale development, the trend suggests operators are becoming increasingly confident in the economic outlook for future drilling.
What makes the current environment particularly interesting is that activity is increasing without a corresponding return to the aggressive growth strategies that characterized previous cycles. Public operators remain focused on capital discipline, shareholder returns, and balance sheet strength. As a result, drilling activity is expanding in a deliberate and measured manner.
At the same time, drilled but uncompleted well inventories continue to decline across several major basins. This indicates that operators are increasingly relying on new drilling activity to sustain production levels rather than drawing from previously accumulated inventory.
Data is a directional representation
After several years defined by restraint, the industry appears to be entering a new phase where growth is returning, but profitability remains the primary objective. For investors, this balance between expansion and discipline may ultimately prove healthier than the boom-and-bust cycles that historically defined the sector.
If you’re curious how we evaluate which operators and basins make the cut for PetroPeak acquisitions, that’s worth a conversation. Book 20 minutes here
Commodity | Current Price ($) | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
WTI Oil ($) | 73.66 | -2.19 -2.89% |
Henry Hub Gas ($) | 3.26 | +0.03 +1.02% |
Current Rig Count(US lower 48) | Week Change | Year Change |
563 | +1 | +9 |
Prices are as of 06/22/2026 and sourced from oilprice.com. Rig data is provided by WellDatabase.com and as of 06/22/2026.
BASIN FOCUS
The Uinta Basins Next Chapter
Few domestic oil basins have undergone a more significant transformation over the past decade than Utah's Uinta Basin.
Historically viewed as a niche producing region constrained by transportation limitations and regulatory complexity, the basin has steadily evolved into one of the more compelling emerging oil plays in North America. Current Uinta Basin oil production is approximately 180,000 barrels per day, but ongoing operator activity, infrastructure investments, and recent regulatory developments have many industry observers viewing 400,000 barrels per day as a realistic long-term milestone for the basin.
Operators continue to demonstrate strong well performance across key development areas while improvements in takeaway capacity have expanded market access for produced volumes. SM Energy and Crescent Energy are two of the leaders in the basin, demonstrating exceptional well results and continuing to increase their capital commitments to the play.
What makes the Uinta particularly attractive is its combination of high-quality reservoir characteristics, improving infrastructure, and a growing inventory of economic drilling locations. While it remains smaller in scale than the Permian, the trajectory and the underlying fundamentals are increasingly difficult to ignore.
For mineral investors, the basin serves as a reminder that some of the most attractive opportunities often emerge before a region becomes a mainstream investment destination. Activity levels, operator commitment, and infrastructure investments frequently provide early indicators of where value creation is heading next.
Real Assets. Real Income. Real Alignment. |
ROYALTY SPOTLIGHT
Why Infrastructure Creates Mineral Value
When investors evaluate mineral assets, production volumes often receive the majority of the attention. Yet some of the most important drivers of long-term royalty value exist entirely outside the wellbore.
Pipelines, processing facilities, export terminals, and gathering systems determine whether production can efficiently reach premium markets. Without adequate infrastructure, even highly productive reservoirs can experience bottlenecks that limit development activity, constrain operator economics, and reduce realized commodity prices for royalty owners.
The recent surge in planned natural gas pipeline projects across the Permian and broader midcontinent illustrates this relationship clearly. Producers and midstream companies do not commit billions of dollars in gathering and transportation capital unless they have high conviction in future production volumes and long-term demand for those services. Infrastructure investment is, in its own way, a forward-looking signal about basin confidence.
At PetroPeak, infrastructure quality is a core component of how we evaluate every acquisition. When we underwrite a mineral position, we are not only assessing the quality of the reservoir and the operator. We are asking whether the infrastructure in place can support full development of the inventory, whether takeaway constraints could limit production upside, and whether planned infrastructure projects are likely to enhance realized pricing over time. A mineral position in a well-developed basin with strong midstream access is fundamentally a different risk profile than one in a region still building out its transportation network.
For royalty owners, infrastructure investments often signal long-term confidence in a region and can support higher development activity, improved economics, and ultimately stronger royalty income over well cycles that can span decades. If you’re an accredited investor interested in participating in the next acquisition, now is a good time to connect. Connect With Us
INVESTOR ADVANTAGE
Finding Opportunity Before the Headlines
One of the most common questions we receive is how PetroPeak identifies attractive opportunities in an increasingly competitive market.
The answer is that we rarely begin by focusing on commodity prices. Instead, we focus on the underlying indicators that tend to lead value creation: operator activity levels, rig trends, permitting data, infrastructure investment, acquisition activity, well performance, and capital deployment decisions. Taken together, these signals often reveal more about a basin's future than short-term price movements ever could.
The Uinta Basin is a useful example of this process. Long before production approached current levels, the leading indicators were pointing toward accelerating activity. Operators were increasing capital commitments, infrastructure projects were advancing, and regulatory conditions were improving. Investors who evaluated those signals early and acted on them were positioned ahead of the broader market's recognition of the opportunity.
Our underwriting process is designed to identify these trends early, evaluate their durability, and allocate capital to positions where we believe long-term development activity will create royalty value.
If you would like to learn more about how PetroPeak approaches acquisition and portfolio construction, we welcome the conversation. You can reach us directly at [email protected] or visit petropeakinvest.com to learn more about our investment approach.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Three themes shaping our deal evaluation right now.
Permian Gas-Oil Ratio Trajectory The EIA's June 2026 data confirms the Permian's GOR has risen 16% since 2021 and is expected to keep climbing. As reservoirs mature, associated gas volumes will continue to outpace oil growth. We are watching how operators manage gas capture, flaring regulations, and midstream commitments as this ratio evolves, and what it means for royalty revenue composition going forward. | Uinta Basin Takeaway Capacity Production growth in the Uinta is real, but the path to 400,000 barrels per day runs directly through infrastructure. Pipeline capacity additions, refinery access, and crude quality differentials will be the binding constraints on how fast this basin can scale. We are tracking midstream project timelines and capital commitments from key operators as the clearest leading indicators of how quickly that milestone becomes achievable. | Natural Gas Demand from AI Data Centers Technology companies have begun signing long-term power purchase agreements that are directly tied to natural gas-fired generation. Several utilities have announced plans to delay or reverse gas plant retirements in response to surging electricity demand from hyperscale facilities. We are watching how quickly this translates into incremental gas demand at the wellhead, and which producing regions are best positioned to benefit. |
LOOKING AHEAD
After more than 30 years drilling wells across nearly every major U.S. basin, I have learned that the most important industry shifts rarely arrive with a headline announcing their significance.
Instead, they emerge gradually through a series of data points that seem disconnected at first. A rising rig count. A new pipeline announcement. An acquisition. Improved well performance. A regulatory change. Individually, each development may appear incremental. Together, they often reveal where capital is moving next.
Today, many of those indicators are pointing toward a future where natural gas plays an increasingly important role in North American energy markets. This is not only for traditional industrial and utility demand, but for the next generation of energy-intensive infrastructure being built around artificial intelligence. The Permian Basin sits at the center of that story, but emerging regions like the Uinta continue to demonstrate that opportunity remains available for investors willing to look beyond the obvious.
The months ahead will likely provide additional clarity. For now, the data suggests the industry is entering a period of measured growth supported by stronger fundamentals than many expected just a year ago.
That is a trend worth watching closely.
Interested in learning more about mineral royalty investing or PetroPeak's current opportunities? Reply directly to this email or reach us at [email protected]. We are always glad to connect.
